TOPIM is an ocean-coupled dynamical and statistical model that leverages subsurface ocean temperatures from gliders, Argo floats & ship stations to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone potential intensity, in near-realtime.
At time of writing (2022), Hurricane Fiona transited across the Caribbean, impacting several Small Island Developing States (SIDS) including a fatality in Guadaloupe. As the storm approached Bermuda, TOPIM delivered predictions of the potential intensity of Hurricane Fiona which were shown to be more accurate than standard weather prediction models by the Bermuda Weather Service. These predictions were based on the dynamic relationship between wind, atmospheric pressure and ocean depth and proved to be the most accurate predictor of hurricane intensity available.
The current project will deliver a state-of-the-art TOPIM model for the wider Caribbean co-developed with the University of the West Indies, which represents 17 Caribbean nations, and improve regional weather and climate adaptation across the region.
TOPIM will provide the West Indies with a local operational tool to assist with hurricane intensity predictions, contribute to local preparedness and provide an indication of the future threat of tropical cyclones in the region.
